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How Close Was Germany To The Atomic Bomb? |
From: S. R. Strickland (ellwood@webtv.net) Subject: How close was Germany to the Atom Bomb? Newsgroups: soc.history.war.world-war-ii Date: 1998/02/04 I have heard from probably unreliable sources that Germany was not that far behind of the Americans in devising an atom bomb. 1) How soon was Germany from creating the destructive power of the atom bomb? 2) Was the Japanese leadership ignorant of the American atom bomb's existence? 3) Why was the German scientists behind the Americans in founding the atom bomb? Thanks for your knowledge on this subject! Sean ********************************* From: Lee Russell (Pclrle@worldnet.att.net) Subject: Re: How close was Germany to the Atom Bomb? Newsgroups: soc.history.war.world-war-ii Date: 1998/02/04 >1) How soon was Germany from creating the destructive power of the atom >bomb? Pretty far behind. The Germans had only just created their first atomic pile when the war ended. This would have put them about where America was in early 1942, when our first atomic pile was created in Chicago. >2) Was the Japanese leadership ignorant of the American atom bomb's >existence? Yes, although Japanese scientists had studied the question and were known to their American counterparts. I believe a letter to them was attached to an insturment package dropped at Hiroshima along with the first A-bomb. I don't know if the letter was delivered. >3) Why was the German scientists behind the Americans in founding the >atom bomb? The Germans did not alot a high priority to the project, partly because so many of the pioneers had been Jews, and acknowledging their work would have been too insulting. The idea of an atomic bomb had been around for several years at least, but was considered inpractical. ***************************************** From: MSouris (msouris@aol.com) Subject: Re: How close was Germany to the Atom Bomb? Newsgroups: soc.history.war.world-war-ii Date: 1998/02/05 Lee Russell > Pretty far behind. The Germans had only just created their first > atomic pile when the war ended. This would have put them about > where America was in early 1942, when our first atomic pile > was created in Chicago. Acutally, no. The Germans did build a "pile," actually, several, IIRC, but none of them "worked" (i. e. achieved criticality). They had not correctly worked out how large the pile needed to be do that, and so they put all the material they had available into the last one, "no joy." It is hard to say anything meaningful about how far behind a failed effort is to a succesful one. Or, how long it would have taken to accumulate enough material for a succesful pile, if any effort had been put into it. But, presumably, a *long* time. Henry Hillbrath ************************************** From: Carey Sublette (careysub@earthling.net) Subject: Re: How close was Germany to the Atom Bomb? Newsgroups: soc.history.war.world-war-ii Date: 1998/02/09 Unfortunately I haven't had time to finish _Heisenberg's War_, so I can't comment Powers's arguments, although I have read _Alsos_ and _The German Atomic Bomb_ (aka _The Virus House_), plus Speers's comments on the subject. Regardless of whether how one evaluates Heisenberg's inner thoughts and motivations on the subject, one thing can be defintely asserted - the Germans were not pursuing the subject very hard. Without much larger allocation of resources to the project, a German atomic bomb would never have come to fruition. The nuclear reactor is a case in point. Why did the German's fail to build one that operated? They had plenty of uranium, a few thousand tons of refined uranium oxide was on hand (more than the entire Manhattan Project consumed). The Vemork heavy water plant is often discussed, since it was Germany's only source during the war. But *why* was this their only source. Even at maximum output it was incapable of supplying D2O for more than one laboratory reactor. It was entirely inadequate for even a small weapons project. It is notable that the allied effort successfully built and operated a D20 reactor during the war, building the plant (the Trail Plant in Canda) from scratch using run-of-the-mill distillation technology. Germany's chemical industry was entirely up to the task of producing industrial scale quantities of D2O using efficient chemical exchange processes, and IG Farben even had plans to do so. Why didn't they? Answers - low priority, lack of organization, lack of leadership (pick some of the above). It was not a matter of needing time to accumulate materials, they simply didn't put out the effort. Carey Sublette ******************************************** From: efrank@msuvx2.memphis.edu (efrank@msuvx2.memphis.edu) Subject: Re: How close was Germany to the Atom Bomb? Newsgroups: soc.history.war.world-war-ii Date: 1998/02/04 > 3) Why was the German scientists behind the Americans in founding the > atom bomb? A variety of personal and institutional factors; there is a claim that their chief theoretical physicist (Heisenberg) deliberately went off in unproductive directions rather than see a Nazi bomb, but the claim is hotly disputed. Another German brain (Lenard) argued that nuclear/einsteinian theory was degenerate "Jewish science" and discouraged research. It also didn't help them that the best scientists in Europe tended to run away when the Germans showed up. The "US" bomb effort was, at the highest levels, an international effort. The best overall source I know is Richard Rhodes' _The Making Of The Atomic Bomb_. _Heisenberg's War_ by Powers (?) is also supposed to be good but it remains on my "to read" list... ********************************************* From: Patterson, Dallas (nye@ns1.fidalgo.net) Subject: Re: How close was Germany to the Atom Bomb? Newsgroups: soc.history.war.world-war-ii Date: 1998/02/04 The German research to design and construct an atomic bomb/fission bomb was reportedly not in sight of success within the forseeable future. Consequently, most commentators dismiss the importance of the German project. Such a dismissal of the German project is not warranted by the facts. Although German production of a fission bomb was not soon forthcoming, the German production of deadly radioactive materials was within reach of German technology and production. Conventional explosive warheads enhanced with deadly radioactive nuclear materials mounted on the the A-3 or A-4 missiles and U-boat weapons could have devastated armies in Europe and cities throughout Europe and parts of the United States with radioactive contamination. > 2) Was the Japanese leadership ignorant of the American atom bomb's > existence? No! In fact, an Axis spy incorrectly reported as fact the false rumors heard in the American Southwest of a successful American test of an atom bomb in "1943"! However, most Japanese officers believed the Americans would be unable to build the atomic bomb for several more years. This belief was due in part to the fact the Japanese research and development began many years earlier than the American projects. The Japanese didn't believe the Americans could overtake the Japanese lead in the research. The Imperial Japanese Army and the Imperial Japanese Navy were in a race to be the first to develop the Japanese atomic bomb. Both of these research and development programs and a world renowned Japanese physicist, Dr. Nishina, relied upon uranium mines and hydroelectric power facilities in Korea to provide the necessary infrastructure for their projects. These are some of the same facilities North Korea uses for its own nuclear weapons research and development in the present day. Although conventional reports claim the Japanese nuclear weapons research was primitive and not close to completing an atomic bomb, there are other reports that dispute such claims. A contemporary reporter from the Atlanta Constitution interviewed a Japanese officer who reported he witnessed a Japanese test of its first atomic bomb off the coast of Korea at the end of the war while he was the project's security officer. One book author has traced the American post-war investigations of the Japanese nuclear research, and he reports on evidence indicating the Japanese were no more than a matter of weeks or a few months behind the Americans in producing their own atomic bombs for use against the Allies. Such reports are vigorously denied and disputed by other authorities. 3) Why was the German scientists behind the Americans in founding the atom bomb? They did not want to see the genocidal NAZIs to be the first to possess the weapons. They new Hitler would use such weapons indiscriminately to literally eradicate or enslave his enemies and contaminate the world with such weapons. ************************************* Message 8 in thread From: Sistersara (sistersara@aol.com) Subject: Re: How close was Germany to the Atom Bomb? Newsgroups: soc.history.war.world-war-ii Date: 1998/02/05 This is just a strong recommendation to those interested in German Nuclear Work and Research during WWII to read Thomas Powers, Heisenberg's War, Knopf, 1993. Powers had the advantage of accessing the wire recorded discussions of the German Nuclear scientists, at Farm Hall, in August 1945. The British intelligence gave these internees information on the use of the bomb in Japan -- and within a few days the Smyth Report, as published in the NYTimes, and then carefully recorded all their conversations as they attempted to fill in the blanks in theory and engineering necessary to comprehending what was "known" and what was indeed unknown to the German researchers. Until the early 1990's these British recordings were secret. There were a number of critical areas -- both theoretical and engineering that the German Scientists clearly had not encountered or comprehended before they learned that one critical secret -- a bomb would work. Powers does an excellent job identifying these, and linking them to policy decisions not to persue specific lines of research. Powers does not fully solve the problem -- did Heisenberg intentionally direct the project away from success -- but he provides considerable evidence that this is a highly probable reading of R & D in Hitler times under Heisenberg's direction. Of considerable interest is his conferences and communication with Speer regarding allowcation of scarse resources in 1942 & 43. Contrast the estimate of resources provided by Heisenberg to Speer with the discussion among Heisenberg's team at Farm Hall in August/September 1945. The relationship between Niels Bohr and Heisenberg is also of great interest to all who look at this issue. I recommend Niels Bohr's Times, in Physics, Philosophy and Polity by Abraham Pais, Oxford University Press, 1991 for a reconstruction of this relationship that contrasts with Powers. In 43 Heisenberg visited Bohr in Denmark -- and in August of 43 Bohr excaped from Denmark to Sweden, and subsequently to London, NYC, Washington and on to Los Alamos. Bohr may have been the one person who comprehended the physics and math who communicated among the "sides" in those critical times. It would be very interesting to see how others interpret Bohr. **************************************** From: Benjamin P. Carter (bpc@netcom.com) Subject: Re: How close was Germany to the Atom Bomb? Newsgroups: soc.history.war.world-war-ii Date: 1998/02/15 TheMinbari <theminbari@aol.com> writes: >Is it possible that Heisenberg saw the cost and difficulty and risk (not just >to the German war effort but to himself physically if the project failed) and >did not want to be the German Oppie ? For the project to have gotten the >funding it needed cuts would have had to be made that would have been felt at >the front lines. Could Germany risk it ? I think it is clear from the taped conversations that Heisenberg not only saw the cost and difficulty and risk; he vastly overestimated the critical mass and concluded, therefore, that a military weapon could not be built by either side during WW2. When the news of the attack on Hiroshima broke, Heisenberg didn't believe it at first. Believing what he did while working for Hitler, Heisenberg would not have pushed for a huge project to build the bomb. It was not a question of personal risk. The project would not have made sense to Heisenberg or anyone else in Hitler's Reich. Ben Carter ***************************************** Message 13 in thread From: Georg Schwarz (schwarz@physik.tu-berlin.de) Subject: Re: How close was Germany to the Atom Bomb? Newsgroups: soc.history.war.world-war-ii Date: 1998/02/16 TheMinbari <theminbari@aol.com> wrote: Is it possible that Heisenberg saw the cost and difficulty and risk (not just to the German war effort but to himself physically if the project failed) and no, I think this goes to far. I think it's save to say that Heisenberg did everything he could to get his uranium machine to work. did not want to be the German Oppie ? For the project to have gotten the Heisenberg didn't even think that it was possible to build a working bomb before the end of the war. All the scientists at Farm Hall were very astonished when they learned of the US success at Hiroshima. In how far Heisenberg and the others involved were in general reluctant of creating a weapon of mass destruction right from the start when they theoretically had realized that potential is probably very hard to tell. funding it needed cuts would have had to be made that would have been felt at the front lines. Could Germany risk it ? well, I think this was not Heisenberg's problem or concern. His research project was pretty low priority, and as I said, they never made an attempt to actually seriously go ahead an build a bomb. They wanted to get their reactor going, that was what they wrere dealing with when the war ended. As for the war economy as a whole, I think Germany could never ever have set up some Manhatten project even if Hitler had been more favorable towards the prospects of "Jewish" physics. Germany lacked the resources the US had, material, energy and man power. -- Georg Schwarz schwarz@physik.tu-berlin.de, kuroi@cs.tu-berlin.de Institut füür Theoretische Physik +49 30 314-24254, FAX -21130 Technische Universitäät Berlin http://home.pages.de/~schwarz/ ************************************** From: Paul F Austin (PAUSTIN@harris.com) Subject: Re: How close was Germany to the Atom Bomb? Newsgroups: soc.history.war.world-war-ii Date: 1998/02/17 TheMinbari wrote: > > > Is it possible that Heisenberg saw the cost and difficulty and risk (not just > to the German war effort but to himself physically if the project failed) and > did not want to be the German Oppie ? For the project to have gotten the > funding it needed cuts would have had to be made that would have been felt at > the front lines. Could Germany risk it ? One of the recurring explanations of "Why the Germans failed to get the bomb" is insufficiently deep pockets. Richard Overy (in Why the Allies Won) says that the V-weapon development and production program cost about the same as the Manhattan Project. The Germans had a whole (modern, industrial) continent at their disposal in 1940 and because on incompetence in organization and planning (of all things) frittered away both the industrial potential of Germany and of the occupied countries as well. Bad choices poorly executed go a long way in explaining why the Germans lost. ***************************************** From: Rich Rostrom (R-Rostrom@neiu.edu) Subject: Re: How close was Germany to the Atom Bomb? Newsgroups: soc.history.war.world-war-ii Date: 1998/02/04 In article <6b8efi$vv8$1@nntp6.u.washington.edu>, ellwood@webtv.net (S. R. Strickland) wrote: > I have heard from probably unreliable sources that Germany was not that > far behind of the Americans in devising an atom bomb. > > 1) How soon was Germany from creating the destructive power of the atom > bomb? Nowhere near. The German scientists were not even sure a bomb was possible. They were working (at a small level) on nuclear power (for use in submarines, among other applications). But they had made several fundamental tehcnical mistakes, and were not even near a primtive self-sustaining chain-reaction, like the one achieved at Stagg Field in 1942. > 2) Was the Japanese leadership ignorant of the American atom bomb's > existence? Yes. Japanese scientists did have some awareness of the possibility, and Japan had a _very_ small atomic research project late in the war. They built _one_ U-235 enrichment unit; it was destroyed in an air raid. > 3) Why was the German scientists behind the Americans in founding the > atom bomb? The US team included a number of _very_ brilliant men who were focused on the particular porblem of nuclear fission. These included Enrico Fermi and Leo Szilard in particular. They realized that an atom bomb was definitely possible, and convinced several leaders of US science, including Einstein, who was at Princeton. The German scientists who discovered fission did not realize the implications of their discovery clearly. Nor were they as concerned about the lack of this weapon for Germany as Szilard et al were about it for the US. One was a Jew, who went into exile in Sweden. Her former coworkers were, obviously, not ardent Nazis, nor was Germany's top physicist, Werner Heisenberg. Where Szilard's group were 'hot to trot', passionately concerned that Nazi Germany might gain a monopoly of this weapon - the German atomic scientists were lukewarm - about the Nazi regime and the war, and about the possibility of an atomic bomb. They hadn't seen some of Fermi's 1938-39 work, which showed the bomb was posssible. They failed to get more than mild support from the Nazi leaders. -- Rich Rostrom ************************************** From: Lee Russell (Pclrle@worldnet.att.net) Subject: Re: How close was Germany to the Atom Bomb? Newsgroups: soc.history.war.world-war-ii Date: 1998/02/07 R-Rostrom@neiu.edu (Rich Rostrom) wrote: > One was a Jew, who went into exile in >Sweden. Her former coworkers were, obviously, not ardent Nazis, Lise Meitner. She later went to England, where she sat out the war as an enemy alien. Her Gentile colleague and lover, Otto Hahn, who had helped her escape, stayed in Germany to work on the Nazi A-bomb. ************************************************* Message 18 in thread From: TheMinbari (theminbari@aol.com) Subject: Re: How close was Germany to the Atom Bomb? Newsgroups: soc.history.war.world-war-ii Date: 1998/02/14 Put yourself in Germany's shoes. An atomic bomb is a long range thing. It is something you plan and research and spend enormous sums of money on today in the hopes of having one 2-3 years later. That assumes a long war of economic attrition, precisely the kind of war Germany knew it could never win atom bomb or no atom bomb and precisely the kind of war the Allies knew they were going to fight. A nation that chose not to build heavy bombers for the future because it needed ground support planes now would not have chosen to invest the enormous sums needed for a Manhattan Projest as opposed to having tanks and planes right now. What if the project was a bust ? Could Germany have afforded an unsuccessful Manhattan Project ? What Germany scientist could have afforded the cost of failure in a police state ? After all no one knew for certain whether the bomb could actually be built. Once the Americans showed that it could be done it was a lot easier for Stalin to say spend whatever you have to spend but get me nukes. . ************************************************ Message 19 in thread From: Keith B. Rosenberg (enorton2@ix.netcom.com) Subject: Re: How close was Germany to the Atom Bomb? Newsgroups: soc.history.war.world-war-ii Date: 1998/02/16 TheMinbari wrote: > .............................. > > What if the project was a bust ? Could Germany have afforded an unsuccessful > Manhattan Project ? What Germany scientist could have afforded the cost of > failure in a police state ? After all no one knew for certain whether the > bomb could actually be built. Once the Americans showed that it could be done > it was a lot easier for Stalin to say spend whatever you have to spend but get > me nukes. . The Nazis did spend the equivalent for unsuccessful programs. The Nazi's probably spent as much on their "V" weapons as the US did on nuclear weapons and the B-29 (about 4 billion). The US got a war winner and the Nazis did not get anything that helped their war effort in the least and definitely hurt it by taking scarce resources and money. ************************************ From: Rene Hoevenberg (rhoevenb@teelen.nl) Subject: Re: How close was Germany to the Atom Bomb? Newsgroups: soc.history.war.world-war-ii Date: 1998/02/19 Keith B. Rosenberg wrote: > TheMinbari wrote: > > .............................. > > What if the project was a bust ? Could Germany have afforded an unsuccessful > > Manhattan Project ? What Germany scientist could have afforded the cost of > > failure in a police state ? After all no one knew for certain whether the > > bomb could actually be built. Once the Americans showed that it could be done > > it was a lot easier for Stalin to say spend whatever you have to spend but get > > me nukes. . > The Nazis did spend the equivalent for unsuccessful programs. > The Nazi's probably spent as much on their "V" weapons > as the US did on nuclear weapons and the B-29 (about 4 billion). > In 1941 or 1942 the Nazis decided that they would win the war and no new super weapons were to be developed. The nuclear program was shifted from bombs to powerplants (of which 2 were operational by early 1945). The Americans blew up the one they captured, the Russians dismantled it and rebuild it in Russia. Many of the early nuclear power plants in the USSR were of the same design. By 1943/1944 the Nazi's concluded that they DID need new super weapons, but research was only allowed if it could lead to a useable result within 3-6 months. There is a documentary movie (British) about the German nuclear scientists, who, imprisonned by the British in some manorhouse, developped the complete and correct theory for a nuclear bomb in 1 or 2 months (August 45). It is suggested that these scientists did not want to develop the bomb for the nazis, but took pride in showing that they could have done it. If the nazi's would have invested in bomb development instead of plant development from 1941 on, they might have had one or two bombs instead of plants in early 1945??? Rene. ************************************ From: Benjamin P. Carter (bpc@netcom.com) Subject: Re: How close was Germany to the Atom Bomb? Newsgroups: soc.history.war.world-war-ii Date: 1998/02/20 Rene Hoevenberg <rhoevenb@teelen.nl> writes: >In 1941 or 1942 the Nazis decided that they would win the war and no new >super weapons were to be developed. The nuclear program was shifted from >bombs to >powerplants (of which 2 were operational by early 1945). AFAIK the German reactors all failed to reach criticality, let alone produce any power. Besides being confused about the critical mass, they believed erroneously that graphite could not be used as a moderator. That is why they relied on heavy water, which was relatively scarce. They certainly did not have an operational power plant, although that was their near-term goal. >There is a documentary movie (British) about the German nuclear >scientists, who, imprisonned by the British in some manorhouse, >developped the complete and correct theory for a nuclear bomb in 1 or 2 >months (August 45). It is suggested that these scientists did not want >to develop the bomb for the nazis, but took pride in showing that they >could have done it. That claim has been made, but it is highly controversial. When assessing such claims, one has to consider the possibility of ulterior motives. It may be that some individuals are trying to obscure the truth in order to seem more altruistic than they really were. >If the nazi's would have invested in bomb development instead of plant >development from 1941 on, they might have had one or two bombs instead >of plants in early 1945??? Without an experimental reactor (not a power plant) like the one the Allies built in Chicago, Heisenberg et al. would not have been able to design a bomb, because they did not have even a rough estimate of the critical mass. Even if they had known the critical mass, they would then have faced the problem of separating out the fissile U-235 from natural uranium, which is mostly U-238. This would have required a much larger effort than what was in fact allocated to all nuclear work by the Germans in WW2. The effort to produce a nuclear power plant was a realistic goal. The mystery is why they were so far from achieving that goal. Trying to produce a bomb with that level of effort would have been hopeless. -- Ben Carter ************************************************ Message 23 in thread From: Benjamin P. Carter (bpc@netcom.com) Subject: Re: How close was Germany to the Atom Bomb? Newsgroups: soc.history.war.world-war-ii Date: 1998/02/04 ellwood@webtv.net (S. R. Strickland) writes: >1) How soon was Germany from creating the destructive power of the atom >bomb? They were not at all close. Heisenberg had made a serious error in his estimate of the critical mass of U235. He and others didn't think a bomb was practical. They were more interested in a reactor as a source of electrical power but were not even close to achieving that goal. >2) Was the Japanese leadership ignorant of the American atom bomb's >existence? Yes. >3) Why was the German scientists behind the Americans in founding the >atom bomb? I find that to be something of a mystery. Part of the answer may be that some of the best European physicists had decided to live in Allied countries by about 1940. The nazis thought they could distinguish Aryan physics from Jewish physics. Even so, many competent physicists stayed behind. I really don't know why their nuclear effort was such a failure. Heisenberg in particular was surprisingly inept while working for Hitler. -- Ben Carter *************************************** From: Lee Winson (lwinson@bbs.cpcn.com) Subject: Re: How close was Germany to the Atom Bomb? Newsgroups: soc.history.war.world-war-ii Date: 1998/02/05 Others have answered this question. A key point is that with the discovery of fission at the start of WW II, the "atomic genie" was let out of the bottle and various nations were interested in developing a bomb. However, the scientific and manufacturing resources required were extremely high, and only the U.S. could both fight a war and build bomb facilities at the same time. But, Germany, the Soviet Union, and Japan all had scientists working in one way or another, to develop nuclear weapons. Many writers claim the "nuclear age" began with either the Trinity Test or Hiroshima deployment. Incorrect--it began with the discovery of fission, which was publicized in the newspapers. Scientists worldwide immediately realized the potential (albeit after long research) for a weapon and powersource. BTW, the US Navy independently was researching atomic power for submarines at the time. Its efforts at U-235 refinement assisted the army. ************************************************* Message 26 in thread From: Ralph Zuljan (zuljan@worldchat.com) Subject: Re: How close was Germany to the Atom Bomb? Newsgroups: soc.history.war.world-war-ii Date: 1998/02/06 Lee Winson wrote in message <6bb2g5$1cj0$1@nntp6.u.washington.edu>... >However, >the scientific and manufacturing resources required were extremely high, >and only the U.S. could both fight a war and build bomb facilities >at the same time. You are correct about the fact that the US had the resources necessary to devote to a project of this nature without it interfering with the war. >Many writers claim the "nuclear age" began with either the Trinity >Test or Hiroshima deployment. Incorrect--it began with the discovery >of fission, which was publicized in the newspapers. Scientists worldwide >immediately realized the potential (albeit after long research) for a >weapon and powersource. I would note that the genie was let out in 1945. Before that the idea of a bomb-like device was pure speculation and pouring billions into research that might end up proving that the quick reaction is infeasible is not something that is likely to be done unless you have spare resources and are convinced that the idea has enough merit to pursue. With respect to the German project, in particular, there was a widespread belief that the A-bomb was probably infeasible. Certainly, nobody sold the idea to Hitler like the V-2 project. If someone had, it would probably received higher priority. Once a bomb was demonstrated, the calculations for what was required to achieve the required fission reaction are fairly trivial (although it still requires huge resources to do). Practically though it would only take a couple of years to do it, if you are convinced that the bomb actually works. In other words, everyone would pour resources into the bomb project once they believe the objective will be achieved. Until then however, the project is likely to end up as a low priority. That was the primary problem with the German bomb, IMHO. Ralph Zuljan http://www.geocities.com/Pentagon/1084 *********************************************** Message 27 in thread From: Lee Winson (lwinson@bbs.cpcn.com) Subject: Re: How close was Germany to the Atom Bomb? Newsgroups: soc.history.war.world-war-ii Date: 1998/02/07 > the blanks in theory and engineering necessary to comprehending what was > "known" and what was indeed unknown to the German researchers. Until the early > 1990's these British recordings were secret. In General Groves' book, published in 1962, he mentioned these recordings and printed brief extracts. |
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